The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA’s) Climate Prediction Center (CPC), part of the National Weather Service, has recently partnered with NOAA's National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) and drought.gov, the U.S. Drought Portal NIDIS manages in partnership with NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, to launch the Rapid Onset Drought (ROD) hazard outlook. This innovative tool is designed to forecast the potential development of flash droughts—sudden and severe drought conditions that can escalate within a few weeks, posing significant risks to agriculture, ecosystems, and communities.

Flash droughts differ from traditional droughts due to their rapid onset, often exacerbated by a combination of low precipitation and extreme weather conditions like high temperatures and low humidity. These factors contribute to a swift depletion of soil moisture, leading to adverse effects such as reduced crop yields, heightened fire risks, and ecosystem stress.

The ROD hazard outlook, which became operational last month, aims to address these challenges by providing advanced notice of possible flash drought conditions over a 2–4 week period. It utilizes current data on soil moisture and weather forecasts to identify regions at risk, particularly emphasizing areas in the Mid-Atlantic and states like Ohio and Indiana.

This tool is a result of extensive collaboration and user engagement initiated by the CPC in 2022, emphasizing the need for improved predictive capabilities that cater to short-term drought forecasting. The interactive map on Drought.gov offers customizable features, allowing users to adjust the map’s appearance, add geographical boundaries, and download detailed images for closer inspection and planning.

NIDIS supported the development of the ROD hazard outlook, which involved multiple phases of stakeholder feedback and real-world testing. This collaborative effort underscores NOAA’s commitment to enhancing drought resilience through cutting-edge technology and community-focused strategies.

The ROD hazard outlook not only marks a significant advancement in meteorological forecasting but also serves as a critical tool for farmers, policymakers, and emergency managers, providing them with the necessary information to make informed decisions in the face of potential natural disasters.

For more detailed information visit the CPC’s website or the Drought.gov Outlooks & Forecasts and Hazard Planning & Preparedness.  You can visit CPC's website to access the interactive ROD hazard outlook.