According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL), the Great Lakes experienced their lowest ice cover on New Year's Day in over 50 years. As of January 1, only 0.35% of the lakes were covered in ice, far below the historical 10% average for this time of year, according to the Great Lakes Ice Tracker. This compares to 4.1% in 2023.

Click on the image above to access the video showing the Great Lakes ice cover from January 1 to December 31, 2023. Visit Great Lakes Surface Environmental Analysis (GLSEA) for a digital map of the Great Lakes surface water temperature and ice cover produced daily.

According to Wisconsin Public Radio, GLERL Physical Scientist James Kessler noted a consistent trend of decreasing ice coverage on the Great Lakes, with an average annual reduction in maximum ice extent of about 0.5% each year, or 5% per decade. Specifically, Lake Superior is experiencing the most significant decline at a rate of approximately 7% per decade, while Lake Michigan shows a more modest decrease of around 4% every ten years. Notably, the lakes had almost no ice on New Year's Day in 2007 and 2016, with ice cover averaging just 0.6% and 0.7%, respectively. Although these figures are significant, Kessler emphasizes that they represent mere snapshots in time and fall within the margin of error. In 2021, January ice coverage was a mere 4.4%, the second-lowest monthly record after 2002. Furthermore, a record low was observed in mid-February of the previous year, with ice cover reaching only 7%. Kessler notes that the peak ice coverage typically occurs from mid-February to early March. 

According to US National Ice Center (USNIS), in the ice season of 2022-2023, the Great Lakes reached their peak ice coverage on February 4, 2023, with an extent of approximately 23.35%. This figure is notably below the average maximum coverage, typically around 53%. 

The North American Ice Service, a collaboration between USNIS, Canadian Ice Service, and United States Coast Guard (USCG) International Ice Patrol, published the Seasonal Outlook Great Lakes Winter 2023-2024, detailing information on ice conditions and outlooks for the Great Lakes that predicts below-average ice cover for all five Great Lakes this season. 

The decreased ice coverage significantly affects various sectors, including tourism and recreational activities like ice fishing according to Wisconsin Public Radio. Ecologically, species such as whitefish, which depend on ice to protect their eggs during winter storms, may be adversely affected. Additionally, researchers have discovered that lower ice levels can lead to increased lake-effect snow. Conversely, the shipping industry in the Great Lakes region could experience economic advantages due to the reduction in ice cover.

Related links: Wisconsin Public Radio, Great Lake Ice Coverage Historical Trends. NASA Earth Observatory.

The image to the right is from a MODIS satellite from February 12, 2023, showing below-average ice cover. Credit: NOAA GLERL / NOAA Great Lakes CoastWatch Node.