Provided by the State Climate Office of Ohio, a collaboration of the Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center, Geography Department, and OSU Extension with support from Energent Solutions.
Temperature and Precipitation
Nearly all of Ohio was seasonably warm and extremely dry this summer. The entire state was near normal for average temperature with western Ohio recording 1-2 °F above normal (Fig. 1a). Three-month accumulated precipitation values indicate southeastern regions of the state only experienced 5-7.5 inches of precipitation while the rest of Ohio logged between 7.5 – 12.5 inches (Fig. 1b). Most of the state noted precipitation was 2 to 6 inches below normal with southeastern Ohio being 8 inches below normal in some areas. Contrastingly, small sections near Lake County and Preble County logged 0-4 inches above normal (Fig. 1c). In terms of percentages, the southeast was at 25-75% of normal precipitation levels. The rest of the state was between 75-100% of normal levels (Fig. 1d). These warm and dry conditions led to the development of exceptional drought in the southeast, which will be discussed later in this summary.
Soil and Energy
The largely below-normal precipitation values are reflected by the dramatically below-normal 3-month SPI. Most of Ohio had SPI values between 0 to -1.5 which indicates, indicating dry soil conditions across most of the state. In the southeast values of -2 to -3 were recorded which indicates incredibly dry soil conditions (Fig. 2). Low soil moisture over the period is a direct result of the below-normal levels of precipitation combined with slightly warmer than average temperatures. Low soil moisture has had many implications on the agriculture industry such as poor tree, crop, and pastureland health.
Slightly above-normal temperatures throughout the summer season resulted in more Cooling-Degree Days (CDDs) and fewer Heating-Degree Days (HDDs) than normal. Overall energy usage for heating and cooling was close to normal this summer as a result of the seasonable temperatures.
Notable Events
This summer saw the first-ever onset of exceptional drought (D4) in Ohio, based on the U.S. Drought Monitor (2000-present). The beginning of June saw no drought conditions in Ohio but 3 months of below-average precipitation combined with above-average temperatures led to drought quickly developing. Currently, 87.45% of Ohio is in a drought categorization (D1-D4) with 9.52% in exceptional drought conditions (D4). The drought monitor update on August 27th had the first usage of D4 in Ohio since the drought monitor's inception in 2000 (Fig. 4). Since then, the area of D4 has expanded significantly.
The impacts of this drought have been the most severe in southeastern Ohio within the agriculture industry. These impacts can be seen across crops, livestock, tree/plant health, and bodies of water. Impacts on crops include soybean pods not filling, stunted corn growth, and the beginning of early harvest as many fields have matured quicker than usual (Fig. 5) Along with this, pasturelands have been in very poor conditions causing many farmers to have to sell their livestock or switch to different food sources such as hay. The risk of wildfires is increasing as dry grasses combined with leaf litter from trees have provided fuel for small woodland ground fires. Many creeks, wells, and springs are drying or are already dry which has not been seen since 1988. Twenty-three Ohio counties have been declared primary disaster areas by the USDA as a result of the drought conditions.
Looking Ahead
The CPC’s three-month outlooks predict warmer than average temperatures for Ohio with uncertainty in the levels of precipitation. The seasonal temperature outlook shows moderate confidence in the entire state observing above-average temperatures through the fall season with the highest confidence in the northeast part of the state (Fig. 6a). The precipitation outlook shows no bias towards above or below-average precipitation over the next three months (Fig. 6b).
Note: these outlooks do not provide the quantity of above or below normal conditions, just the likelihood of occurrence (i.e., the probability).
The trend of CPC’s seasonal outlooks predicting warmer-than-average temperatures in Ohio has continued since October of 2022. The last time a seasonal outlook predicted colder-than-average temperatures in Ohio was about 4 years and 9 months ago in December of 2019. The predicted warmer-than-average temperatures with uncertain precipitation continue the uncertain future of the current drought conditions in the state. Long-term or prolonged drought is typically categorized as a drought that lasts 6 months or more. The impacts of long-term drought range from increased risk of wildfire, damage to different plants and ecosystems, and depletion of aquifers due to excessive need to pump groundwater.
Authors
Aiden Ridgway: Atmospheric Sciences Undergraduate, Student Assistant: Climate Services - Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center, The Ohio State University, ridgway.72@osu.edu
Geddy R. Davis: Meteorologist/Atmospheric Scientist, Program Coordinator: Climate Services - Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center, The Ohio State University, davis.5694@osu.edu
Aaron B. Wilson: State Climate Office of Ohio, Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center & OSU Extension, The Ohio State University, wilson.1010@osu.edu