Provided by the State Climate Office of Ohio, a collaboration of the Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center, Geography Department, and OSU Extension with support from Energent Solutions.
Temperature
Temperatures in Ohio were above average for March, following the trend from previous months. Average temperatures in the northern part of the state were around 40-45°F, while southern regions logged 45-50°F (Fig. 1a). In contrast, temperature departures were more varied across Ohio. A slight northeast-southwest gradient can be observed with temperatures in the northeast around 5-8°F above normal, central parts of the state experiencing 4-6°F above normal, and southwestern regions 2-5°F above normal (Fig. 1b).
At the county level, the entire state ranked in the warmer third of the record with more than half of Ohio’s counties ranking in the warmest tenth of the record (Fig. 2). Overall, the county data follows the same trend of the average temperature departures map for March of above average temperatures across the entire state.
Precipitation
Accumulated precipitation departures in Ohio were closer to normal values for March compared to previous months but variations from region to region still occurred. Accumulated precipitation measured 3 to 4 inches for most of the state with areas along Lake Erie and around Columbus recording 2 to 3 inches (Fig. 3a). Accumulated precipitation departures ranged between 0 to 2 inches below normal in southern Ohio while the northwest recorded values between 0 to 1.5 inches above normal. The rest of the state logged somewhere between -0.5 to 0.5 inches from normal (Fig. 3b).
At the county level, a large portion of Ohio ranked near normal, with the southern region and central part of northern Ohio reaching the lowest third of the record. Contrastingly, Lucas, Wood, and Allen counties ranked in the wettest third of the record (Fig. 4). Overall, the variation in precipitation levels across the maps can likely be explained by a few localized intense precipitation events.
Soil & Energy
Regions of dryness persist despite many areas of improvement at the end of March. On the 0-40cm map (Fig. 5a), soil conditions are shown to be dry across the entire western border of the state while a region of moist soil conditions is displayed in the southeast portion of the state. The rest of the state recorded soil conditions in the middle percentiles. The 0-200cm map (Fig. 5b) shows similar trends of dry soil conditions in the west, moist soil conditions in the southeast, and average conditions across the rest of the state. Recent precipitation events are shown more evidently in the top 0-40 cm layers of soil compared to the 0-200cm levels, with more notable dryness still apparent in these lower layers.
Warmer-than-average temperatures recorded in March were beneficial to Ohio’s energy consumption as the occurrence of Heating Degree Days (HDDs) was lower across every climate division in the state. No Cooling Degree Days (CDDs) were observed for March, but this is expected to change as we move further into the spring season (Fig. 6).
Product Note: Both NASA SPoRT LIS soil moisture products contain small pockets of inaccurate data indicating extremely wet or dry conditions. These small-scale errors can emerge in remote sensing products covering large areas or grid-spacings. For more information, please contact Geddy Davis (davis.5694@osu.edu).
Notable Events
By far the most notable event in March was the tornado outbreak on the 14th. Storms early in the morning of the 14th decreased the level of atmospheric instability in Ohio leading to uncertainty in the extent of severe weather. However, later in the day, a rebound of warm and moist air combined with favorable low-level winds contributed to a redevelopment of severe weather around 5pm local time. Intense supercell thunderstorms went on to produce tornadoes, large hail, and intense winds over northern and western Ohio through the evening. This is an example of conditions in the atmosphere changing rapidly over the afternoon hours, proving it is important to remain vigilant throughout the entire day when severe weather is forecast.
Nine tornadoes would eventually develop including two EF3s, two EF2s, four EF1s, and one EF0. Numerous buildings across the state were damaged with campers, mobile homes, and RV's being impacted the most. Devastatingly, the Logan County EF3 tornado took the lives of 3 individuals and injured many more. Hundreds of families were displaced from their homes and recovery efforts are still ongoing. This event serves as a stark reminder that February and March mark the beginning of tornado season in Ohio, and as such it is becoming increasingly important to be weather-aware as we move into the peak of severe weather season.
Looking Ahead
The CPC’s 3-month outlook continues the trend showcased in previous outlooks of likely warmer-than-average temperatures in Ohio for the transition to the summer season. Temperatures are predicted to be above normal across the state with moderate confidence (Fig. 9a). The precipitation outlook indicates equal chances of precipitation being above or below normal for most of Ohio excluding the southern part of the state, which has a minimal probability of having above-average precipitation (Fig. 9b). Warmer-than-average temperatures would continue the fast start to the growing season. However, uncertainty of the precipitation outlook could impact how effectively growers can take advantage of the early start. Recent precipitation events between March 30 and April 3 have saturated soil in many places, adding to the uncertainty in future soil conditions. Additional precipitation could cause an overabundance of soil moisture while possible warm dry conditions could lead to a faster drying out of surface soil. Thus, upcoming weather events may prove very influential for the coming spring months.
Note: these outlooks do not provide the quantity of above or below normal conditions, just the likelihood of occurrence (i.e., the probability).
Authors
Jacob L. Fields: Undergraduate Student, Student Assistant: Climate Services, Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center, The Ohio State University, fields.609@osu.edu
Geddy R. Davis: Meteorologist/Atmospheric Scientist, Program Coordinator: Climate Services - Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center, The Ohio State University, davis.5694@osu.edu
Aaron B. Wilson: State Climate Office of Ohio, Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center & OSU Extension, The Ohio State University, wilson.1010@osu.edu